Visibility
A wishlist is worth half what it was in 2022
Across 160 games, a wishlist brings roughly half as many first-month sales in 2023-2025 as in 2020-2022. Yet total wishlists are still the best predictor of launch sales (R² 0.72 to 0.77). For a game above $10, the median is 0.10 sales per wishlist in week one.
So you need more wishlists than before for the same launch. Pick a number the day the Steam page goes live and check it every month. On Divider Dave, we started too late.
Source: Zukowski, Oct. 2026 · GameDiscoverCo, Oct. 2025
Next Fest
At Next Fest, demos already out do better
October 2026 had over 7,300 demos (+66% on June). A top-10% game gained 63 followers, against 121 in June. Many of the top games already had a demo gaining momentum before the festival.
The games that win at the festival are the ones whose demo was already drawing players before. I ship the demo before, and if it's not ready, we aim for the next edition: a game takes part only once.
Source: GameDiscoverCo, Oct. 2026
Scope
Crunch doesn't rescue a project
Across 273 completed projects, an endless crunch cycle correlates with worse outcomes (r = -0.47), and so do hours caused by poor planning (-0.36). Crunch doesn't help struggling projects recover. A clear, well-communicated plan goes with less crunch (-0.49).
When things slip, the temptation is nights and weekends. I'd rather cut. Sort everything into must, should and bonus at the start, so when it's time to choose, the list already exists.
Source: Game Outcomes Project, 2015 (2014 survey, no newer edition)
Team
A clear vision weighs more than Scrum versus waterfall
In the same study, a clear, well-communicated vision correlates with success (r ≈ 0.56). Team size and production method (Scrum, waterfall) show no significant effect.
Scrum, Kanban, waterfall: honestly, it doesn't matter much. I first check that everyone knows which game you're making and who decides what. The method gets set to your pace.
Source: Game Outcomes Project, part 2, 2015 · part 1
Delivery
Projects owned by two succeed more often
According to Gartner, 48% of digital initiatives meet their goals. When IT and business leaders co-own delivery, it rises to 71%. The study covers digital projects outside games.
I don't run the project in a corner while you make the game. Scope calls get signed by two people: me, and whoever holds the game's vision.
Source: Gartner via Computer Weekly
AI
Games that disclose AI sell less in their first month
In 2026, one in three new Steam games discloses AI (8,255 titles by October 20), mostly for visuals. These games account for 10 to 27% of estimated sales. According to GYLD data, they sell less and get worse reviews, and the gap holds a year later. Correlation, not causation.
I use it to rough out posts and summarize playtests, and someone always reviews. Art, music, design: it's your game, so it's your call. Make it knowing these numbers.
Source: SuperJoost Playlist (GYLD data), Oct. 2026 · Sulka Haro, Jul. 2026
After launch
79% of Steam revenue comes from games already out
In the first half of 2026, games released in earlier years made 79% of Steam's revenue, up from 71% in the first half of 2024. That year's new releases made only 21%. Valve also asks you to set your date at least 60 days ahead to appear on the personal calendar page.
My schedule keeps going after launch: sales, bundles, updates, over two years. And set your price with room for discounts.
Sources: Alinea Analytics, Jul. 2026 · Steamworks, personal calendar
Context
28% of professionals laid off in two years
Of more than 2,300 professionals surveyed, 28% were laid off in two years and half saw their employer lay people off within the year. At indie studios, a third of respondents report layoffs in the past year.
A funding application and a publisher deck share most of their pieces (WBS, schedule, budget, go-to-market strategy). We build them together once, then adapt them.
Source: GDC State of the Game Industry 2026
